Copper Prices Hold Near Record Highs as a 15% US Tariff on Refined Copper for 2027 Remains Undecided

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed at US$14,456 per tonne on October 20, 2026, up about 17% from the end of the first quarter and not far from the record closing high of US$14,812 set on September 9. Meanwhile, the United States has yet to decide whether to impose a 15% tariff on imported refined copper starting January 1, 2027.

For display, power, and communication module makers that use large volumes of cable assemblies, wire harnesses, and terminals, copper prices and tariff developments are two of the key variables shaping component costs through year-end.

Copper Price Trend: Still Near Record Highs in October

Copper rose about 8% in each of the second and third quarters, for a cumulative gain of about 17% since the end of Q1. Compared with the end of Q3, the October 20 price is up only 0.35%, showing that after two straight quarters of gains, copper has been trading in a high range through October. On October 22, prices fell as much as 2% intraday to US$14,076 per tonne, weighed down by a short-term rise in LME inventories and a tech-sector selloff that dampened market sentiment.

Japan is seeing the same trend. JX Advanced Metals, whose copper price serves as Japan’s domestic benchmark, raised its price to ¥2.44 million per tonne on October 13, a record high and up 27% so far this year.

Three Supply Factors Supporting Copper Prices

Stalling mine supply: Morgan Stanley estimates that global mined copper supply may stall or even decline in 2026. If so, it would be the first full-year drop in mine supply since 2017. Recent strikes and production cuts at Chilean mines have added to supply concerns.

China’s scrap copper shortage: Goldman Sachs notes that a shortage of scrap copper in China has forced the market to draw down domestic inventories and use more refined copper to meet demand, which has become an important source of price support.

US copper stockpiling: Tariff expectations have pulled large volumes of copper into the United States. According to Reuters, warehouses approved by the COMEX exchange in New York now hold about 70% of the world’s visible copper stocks. Metals broker Marex also attributes much of this year’s tightness in refined copper to market expectations that the US will introduce tariffs in January 2027. With so much metal concentrated in the US, physical supply in other regions has become tighter.

US Refined Copper Tariff: Status and Market Views

Under a presidential proclamation issued by the White House on July 30, 2025, the US has imposed a 50% Section 232 tariff on semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products since August 1, 2025, calculated on the value of the copper content. Refined copper was not included. In April 2026, the US announced further adjustments to its Section 232 tariff regime for steel, aluminum, and copper, so the rate that applies to a specific product should be confirmed against the latest US Customs guidance.

Here is where the refined copper decision stands:

Market views are divided. Macquarie analysts see the most likely scenario as the January deadline passing without a decision. In August, Societe Generale used the spread between COMEX and LME prices to estimate that the market was pricing in about a 14.6% chance of a 15% tariff taking effect in January 2027.

According to Reuters, a decision to impose the tariff could trigger another rush of shipments to the US before it takes effect, while a decision to drop it could prompt traders to unwind their positions and reverse the flow of metal. Either outcome would affect how tight copper supply is outside the US.

What This May Mean for Cable, Wire Harness, and Terminal Costs

Copper is the main conductor material in wires and cables, and connector terminals commonly use copper alloys such as brass and phosphor bronze. With copper prices holding at high levels, raw material cost pressure on cables, wire harnesses, and terminals is rising as well.

Pricing for cables and wire harnesses is often closely tied to copper prices. With copper near record highs and the tariff outcome still uncertain, the frequency and size of price adjustments may also change. The actual impact depends on each product’s construction, wire specifications, and copper content.

Bottom Line

Stalling mine supply, a scrap copper shortage in China, and US stockpiling have pushed copper up about 17% since the end of Q1 and kept prices near record highs, while a decision on a US tariff on refined copper for 2027 remains pending. For module makers that use large volumes of cables, wire harnesses, and terminals, the direction of copper prices and the tariff decision are key cost variables through year-end.

Sources

Some data in this article is drawn from publicly available industry research and has been reorganized and rewritten by SyncTronics. All rights to the original data and research findings remain with their original publishers.

SyncTronics Solutions

SyncTronics provides integrated cable assembly, wire harness, connector, and terminal block solutions through a network of qualified supply chain partners. For display, power, and communication module makers managing high-mix, low-volume purchasing across many part numbers, we help evaluate shared cable and part number consolidation across models, NPI sampling, and partial shipment planning, with samples and datasheets available for verification.

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